By Jim Cline
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their bimonthly inflation report March 12 showing inflation through February. Most economists had projected that All Cities CPI would be around the 3.0% mark reported in the January inflation report but instead a slight dip was reported. Another notable trend is that, as we have been anticipating, the Seattle indices have continued to slow, and Seattle area inflation is reported as slightly less than national numbers.
This graph shows the bimonthly movement in inflation over the past year, including the latest numbers:
The numbers above drive many contract negotiations, but they are not the only numbers in use. This chart shows some of the other often used indices including the “U” numbers and the West Coast numbers:
Absent a significant economic slowdown or recession (discussed below), many economists anticipate that upcoming inflation reports will be higher, probably north of 3%. While inflation had been expected to continue its trajectory towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the surging tariff wars and expected to create some bump in inflation. Almost all economists agree that increased tariffs will create an increase in inflation, but they differ as to the extent and how long lasting the inflation impacts will be. This morning’s CPI report may represent the low point in inflation for the year.
Last week’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey also showed consumers anticipating more inflation ahead. Inflation expectations are problematic because they influence the direction of inflation. Economists believe expectations of higher inflation spur wage demands which create higher levels of inflation.
In the next newsletter article, we’ll address other economic developments impacting bargaining.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released their bimonthly inflation report two weeks ago showing inflation through June. We have 
