Wage Series Part 1: Latest CPI Reports

Wage Series Part 1:  Latest CPI Reports

By: Jim Cline and Kate Kremer

Launch of the 2021 Winter Wage Series

This is the first of a multi-part series addressing current economic conditions and wage settlement trends.  In this Winter 2021 Wage Series, we’ll bring you an update on CPI and economic developments, wage settlements, interest arbitration trends, statewide wage rankings for public safety classifications across the State, and an in-depth analysis of what factors appear to be impacting those rankings and settlements.

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National CPI Drops, but Seattle Stays Higher than Expected

By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer

Despite the pandemic and the associated recession, inflation has not completely disappeared, especially in the Seattle metropolitan area. This chart shows the month to month changes in the Seattle and All Cities “W” index from October 2019 to October 2020:

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CPI Drops, but Seattle Still Surpasses the All-Cities Index

By: Jim Cline and Kate Kremer

Pushed down by the COVID Recession, the important June to June CPI number showed a dramatic, though expected, drop.  We say “important” because many Washington public safety labor contracts are tied, directly or indirectly, to the June CPI numbers. As indicated in the recently released Guidebook on “Negotiation in Turbulent Times”, regardless of the CPI, we anticipate challenging bargaining in 2020 and into 2021. We are expecting most employers will at least start with 0% as their base wage proposal, and we’ve already seen one proposal for a -3%. [Read more…]