Recent Economic Reports Continue to be Mixed

Recent Economic Reports Continue to be Mixed

By Jim Cline

The most recent batch of national economic reports from the past couple weeks, continue to reflect an economy that is recovering slowly. On balance, the news is positive.  The economic indicators from earlier in the summer of a possible recession seem to be receding, replaced with more positive, albeit, not vibrant indicators.

One of the more hopeful signs is the resurgence of the housing market.  The severely distressed housing market has contributed significantly to the depth of the recent recession and the slow recovery from it.  Most economists agree that no full recovery will occur, until the housing market rebounds. The most recent housing sales report shows home sales rising and suggests that the large inventory of unsold properties is starting to clear.

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August Washington State Forecast Council Report Identifies Mixed, but Mostly Positive State Economic News

August Washington State Forecast Council Report Identifies Mixed, but Mostly Positive State Economic News

By Jim Cline

The latest monthly report from the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council reports on some modest improvements.  The Council’s August Report contains the following highlights:

  •  July U.S. employment grew by 163,000 jobs, the strongest labor market performance since February 2012.
  •  Second quarter GDP growth slowed to 1.5%.
  •  The Washington recovery remains moderately positive.
  •  Washington job growth is on track with the forecast while housing construction is improving faster than expected.
  •  As anticipated in last month’s report, revenue from the July 11 – August 10, 2012 collection period came in below the June forecast after last month’s high positive variance. Cumulatively, receipts are now   much closer to their forecasted value.
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National Consumer Price Index Unchanged in July

By Jim Cline

The Bureau of Labor Statistic’s release of national inflation numbers for July shows that national inflation was level for the month. On a 12 month basis, the All Cities CPI-U declined from 1.7%to 1.4 % and the All Cities CPI-W moved from 1.6% to 1.3%. The Seattle inflation numbers are reported bimonthly, with the bimonthly August numbers due out in mid-September. [Read more…]

Key Summer CPI Numbers Released by BLS with Seattle Index running ahead of All Cities

Key Summer  CPI Numbers Released by BLS with Seattle Index running  ahead of All Cities

 By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its awaited June CPI report and it reveals that the National All-Cities index has moderated more than the Seattle index.  The Seattle June CPI-W was reported at 2.7%, more than a point ahead of the June All Cities CPI-W which was reported at 1.6%.  In both cases, these indices dropped significantly from last June when inflation was running near 4%.  This chart shows the last 12 months of CPI-W data.

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State Revenues Surprise to the Up-Side in July

By Chris Casillas

In a somewhat rare occurrence over the last several years, the State’s July revenue report surprised to the positive for once suggesting a possible turnaround in its finances.  The report, released July 11, 2012, indicated that receipts into the General Fund for the period of June 11- July 10 were $66.5 million (or 5.5%) higher than projected in the June revenue forecast.  Similarly, Revenue Act receipts were $45 million (or 5.2%) higher than forecast in June.  Receipts across many major sectors of the economy were up on a year-to-year and monthly basis.  One important sign of a possible turnaround came from the construction industry, that saw tax payments increase by 12.6% year-over-year, which the report noted was the first double-digit increase since November 2007.  Revenue Act receipts, continuing a positive trend beginning back in 2010, are now back to levels immediately preceding the Great Recession that took hold in 2007.