By Christopher Casillas

The Washington State Employment Security Department released its monthly employment report for Feburary 2013 today, confirming that a recent trend in new jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate is no mirage, and may be gathering steam.  The headline numbers indicate that the State, particularly the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett region, is seeing a strong rebound in new jobs, specifically: [Read more…]

By Christopher Casillas

The State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council released its updated March revenue report and forecast today, showing some improvements in the State’s budget for the current biennium.  The revenue forecast for the current biennium has been increased by $58.8 million by the Council.  This reports an improvement over the November 2012 forecast, based on an increase in likely tax collections during the current biennium.  The State now predicts that revenue into its General Fund for the 2011-2013 biennium, will most likely come in at $30.536 billion.  The Council noted that uncertainty remains high due to unknown economic impacts, like the federal sequestration, as well as ongoing economic crises around the globe. 

By Jim Cline

The December report of the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council,contains some mildly good news.  The highlights of the report include:

•  Economic impacts of Hurricane Sandy were likely reflected in weak personal consumption data but not Bureau of Labor Statistics employment numbers.
•  November U.S. employment grew by 146,000 jobs; September and October employment data were revised down by a total of 49,000 jobs.
•  Growth in real GDP for the third quarter was revised up to 2.7% (SAAR) due to faster inventory accumulation.
•  Washington employment continues to grow at a moderate rate.
•  Housing is looking increasingly positive.
•  Regional inflation is cooling on slower rent growth.
• Major General Fund-State revenue collections for the November 11 – December 10, 2012 collection period were $72.7 million (4.3%) higher than the November forecast.
• Revenue Act collections were $39.4 million (4.4%) higher than forecasted and other revenue was $33.4 million (4.1%) higher.
•  Some of this month’s positive variance was due to the timing of payments, so the variance will be at least partially reversed next month. The $20 million positive variance in real estate excise tax collections, however, should remain.

[Read more…]

By Jim Cline

The newly-released September 2012 report of the Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council identifies an economy, of a slow national economy coupled with a slightly stronger State economy. This report is consistent with the other recent Forecast Council reports. As we have discussed, the mixed economic conditions impede a full fiscal recovery for the State and local governments and serves as a significant constraint on the current collective bargaining environment. Until government budgets rebuild reserves and the labor market picks up momentum, we are unlikely to return to widespread robust contract settlements. [Read more…]