By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer
This is the second part of our 11 part Summer 2015 wage series. In this article we take a look at recent contract settlements and examine how those trends vary from recent previous years. Our view of 2013 and 2014 settlements and what we have so far from 2015 indicates that the Washington State public safety employee wages are a mirror of national wage stagnation. We see flat wage increases with little substantial real wage growth. Whether a growing economy eventually will accelerate these is something we’ll discuss later in this series.
An exception in this flat trend line, though exists for commissioned law enforcement. With widespread reports of recruiting difficulties statewide, but especially in the Seattle area, it should not be surprising that average settlements for law enforcement are well over 2%.
Firefighter settlements lagged in 2013 and 2014 but are picking up so far in 2015.
In this article we’ll provide you an overview and summary of settlements. But for the details of those settlements, you’ll want to explore our Premium Website. If you’re not currently a Premium Website subscriber, you can review our services at Cline and Casillas Premium Information Services and contact Donna Steinmetz at Cline and Casillas and she’ll explain how you can become one. For current premium subscribers below are links to some of the additional available Settlement Trend reports:
Both mean and median numbers are reported and each has their own significance. Median settlements may be a better indicator of the overall trend as the mean number is sometimes distorted by the occasional particularly high settlement or a large number of 0% settlements.
For 2013 we have most of the wage increases determined and with the Dispatchers and Corrections officers on the low end and Law Enforcement Officers doing slightly better we have the following numbers:
| 2013 Washington Law Enforcement and Fire Wage Settlement Averages & Medians | |||||||
| CLASSIFICATION | 5 Year Average (Mean) | 5 Year Median | 25 Year BA Average (Mean) | 25 Year BA Median | Number Settled | Number Surveyed | % Settled |
| City Police Officers | 2.26% | 2.49% | 2.71% | 2.48% | 124 | 131 | 95% |
| County Deputy Sheriffs | 2.12% | 2.00% | 2.24% | 2.22% | 37 | 39 | 95% |
| Firefighters | 1.77% | 2.00% | 1.87% | 2.00% | 87 | 88 | 99% |
| Corrections Officers (City and County) | 1.69% | 1.50% | 2.12% | 1.99% | 51 | 55 | 93% |
| Dispatchers (City, County and Regional Centers) | 1.51% | 1.50% | 1.83% | 1.50% | 55 | 57 | 96% |
| Records Clerks (City and County) | 1.72% | 1.97% | 1.80% | 1.94% | 131 | 133 | 98% |
Notice that in 2013 the Police Officer median and average figures are more in the range of 2.5%. We will see this number slip back to closer to 2.25% over the next few years. The 2014 table below is also fairly complete and we see the median wage settlements hovering at 2% with Deputy Sheriff’s slightly better at 2.25%. The average wage settlements are slightly better in 2014 than 2013 with the exception of the Firefighters who barely budged from their below 2% averages. And again, Law Enforcement Officers achieved slightly larger settlements than their noncommissioned counterparts.
| 2014 Washington Law Enforcement and Fire Wage Settlement Averages & Medians | |||||||
| CLASSIFICATION | 5 Year Average (Mean) | 5 Year Median | 25 Year BA Average (Mean) | 25 Year BA Median | Number Settled | Number Surveyed | % Settled |
| City Police Officers | 2.41% | 2.00% | 2.73% | 2.00% | 117 | 131 | 89% |
| County Deputy Sheriffs | 2.51% | 2.25% | 2.35% | 2.25% | 37 | 39 | 95% |
| Firefighters | 1.85% | 2.00% | 1.87% | 2.00% | 84 | 88 | 95% |
| Corrections Officers (City and County) | 2.50% | 2.00% | 2.32% | 1.98% | 48 | 55 | 87% |
| Dispatchers (City, County and Regional Centers) | 1.99% | 2.00% | 2.29% | 2.00% | 53 | 57 | 93% |
| Records Clerks (City and County) | 1.97% | 1.98% | 1.86% | 1.93% | 126 | 133 | 95% |
As can be seen in the following table, 2015 median settlements are hovering close to 2% with the same slightly higher median for Sheriff’s Deputies at 2.25%. These trend summaries show, that interest arbitration eligible groups continue to achieve slightly better settlements than non-eligible bargaining units.
| 2015 Washington Law Enforcement and Fire Wage Settlement Averages & Medians | |||||||
| CLASSIFICATION | 5 Year Average (Mean) | 5 Year Median | 25 Year BA Average (Mean) | 25 Year BA Median | Number Settled | Number Surveyed | % Settled |
| City Police Officers | 2.33% | 2.20% | 2.44% | 2.20% | 90 | 131 | 69% |
| County Deputy Sheriffs | 2.29% | 2.25% | 2.28% | 2.23% | 29 | 39 | 74% |
| Firefighters | 2.27% | 2.00% | 2.37% | 2.00% | 63 | 88 | 72% |
| Corrections Officers (City and County) | 1.96% | 2.00% | 1.99% | 2.00% | 32 | 55 | 58% |
| Dispatchers (City, County and Regional Centers) | 1.75% | 2.00% | 1.69% | 1.96% | 34 | 57 | 60% |
| Records Clerks (City and County) | 2.02% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 90 | 133 | 68% |
In these settlement trends it is difficult to see progress. The below table gives some hope for future wage growth. One major impact on the settlement trend averages since 2009 has been the high number of 0% wage increases. The represents the tail end of the Great Recession impacts in which many agencies faced back to back years of no increase. The table below shows strong movement away from such settlements:
| Number of Contracts with 0% Wage Settlements | Percentage of Contracts with 0% Wage Settlements | |||||
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
| Police Officers | 22 | 10 | 5 | 17.74% | 8.55% | 5.56% |
| Deputies | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13.51% | 8.11% | 6.90% |
| Firefighers | 19 | 11 | 4 | 21.84% | 13.10% | 6.35% |
| Corrections Officers | 16 | 6 | 3 | 31.37% | 12.50% | 9.38% |
| Dispatch | 14 | 10 | 6 | 25.45% | 18.87% | 17.65% |
| Records Clerks | 33 | 28 | 9 | 25.19% | 22.22% | 10.00% |
And the here we see the increasing percentage of wage increases over 2%:
| Number of Contracts with 2% or Greater Wage Settlements | Percentage of Contracts with 2% or Greater Wage Increase | |||||
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
| Police Officers | 82 | 73 | 66 | 66.13% | 62.39% | 73.33% |
| Deputies | 21 | 26 | 23 | 56.76% | 70.27% | 79.31% |
| Firefighers | 43 | 45 | 41 | 49.43% | 53.57% | 65.08% |
| Corrections Officers | 22 | 28 | 21 | 43.14% | 58.33% | 65.63% |
| Dispatch | 21 | 26 | 15 | 38.18% | 49.06% | 44.12% |
| Records Clerks | 53 | 48 | 49 | 40.46% | 38.10% | 54.44% |
Even the number of settlements over 2% reported here in 2013 and 2014 reflect some impact from the Recession. In a number of instances, groups that had taken wage freezes, where recognized with a partial offsetting catchup, or settlements were delayed into the out years of contracts settled earlier in the decade.
The 2015 settlement table as well as the 2015 column of these last two tables are preliminary as only between 60-74% of the settlements are available. Later this year, we’ll run another wage settlement update which should provide a more complete assessment of the 2015 settlement trends.
In the next article in this series we’ll discuss current economic conditions that may affect your bargaining outlook.
