By Jim Cline and Kate Kremer
This is the second article in our eleven-part, Spring 2013 Wage Series. In this article, we take a look at recent contract settlements and examine how those trends vary from recent previous years. Our view of 2012 settlements and what we have so far from 2013, indicates a trend towards rising settlements, but not a full return to the robust, pre Great Recession settlements. Whether a healthy economy will accelerate these trends further, is something we’ll discuss later in this series.
We will provide you a good overview of those trends but for the most detailed and complete look at wage rankings and settlements, you’ll want to explore our Premium Website. If you’re not currently a Premium Website subscriber, contact Darrah Hinton at Cline & Associates and she’ll explain how you can become one.
The 2012 settlements, (except for Firefighters), show a marked jump over 2011 settlements. Those trend summaries do show, though, that interest arbitration eligible groups achieved much better settlements than non-eligible bargaining units. The following summary tables reveal both differentials — those affected by arbitration eligibility and the differences between 2011 and 2012. Here’s a table summarizing 2011 settlements:
|
CLASSIFICATION |
5 YEAR AVERAGE (MEAN) |
5 YEAR MEDIAN |
25 Year BA Average (Mean) |
25 Year BA Median |
Number Settled |
% Settled |
| City Police Officers |
1.54% |
1.00% |
1.50% |
1.20% |
125 |
95% |
| County Deputy Sheriffs |
1.82% |
1.97% |
2.00% |
1.90% |
35 |
90% |
| Firefighters |
3.23% |
2.00% |
3.30% |
2.00% |
54 |
90% |
| Corrections Officers (City and County |
1.15% |
0.00% |
1.28% |
0.08% |
52 |
91% |
| Dispatchers (City, County and Regional Centers) |
1.23% |
0.11% |
1.44% |
0.41% |
58 |
92% |
| Records Clerks (City and County) |
1.12% |
0.12% |
1.11% |
0.12% |
120 |
94% |
As you see, Firefighters, without apparent explanation, achieved some unusually large settlements given the economic context of that year. Settlements for other public safety classifications were markedly lower. Law Enforcement Officers however, achieved substantially larger settlements than their Non-Commissioned counterparts.
In 2012, Firefighter settlements subsided and converged in line with the rising commissioned officer settlements, and Non-Commissioned bargaining units saw increases above 2011, as reported here:
|
CLASSIFICATION |
5 YEAR AVERAGE (MEAN) |
5 YEAR MEDIAN |
25 Year BA Average (Mean) |
25 Year BA Median |
Number Settled |
% Settled |
| City Police Officers |
2.56% |
2.50% |
2.55% |
2.50% |
114 |
87% |
| County Deputy Sheriffs |
2.55% |
2.59% |
2.73% |
2.67% |
24 |
62% |
| Firefighters |
2.50% |
3.01% |
2.49% |
3.00% |
35 |
58% |
| Corrections Officers (City and County |
1.80% |
1.99% |
1.90% |
2.40% |
41 |
72% |
| Dispatchers (City, County and Regional Centers) |
1.52% |
1.25% |
1.57% |
1.69% |
44 |
70% |
| Records Clerks (City and County) |
1.94% |
2.00% |
2.10% |
1.96% |
103 |
84% |
There are still a large number of 2012 settlements outstanding, but we are anticipating that the ultimate 2012 settlement averages will be near those reported here.
So far in 2013, we have only a very partial set of settlements. From what is reported so far, the trends of 2012 appear to continue into 2013 in these settlements. Among the many settlements still outstanding, and given the modest improvements in the economy and local government budgets, we think there’s a possibility that these overall averages may still rise slightly when all settlements are on the books. Less than half of the contracts are settled as reported here:
|
CLASSIFICATION |
5 YEAR AVERAGE (MEAN) |
5 YEAR MEDIAN |
25 Year BA Average (Mean) |
25 Year BA Median |
Number Settled |
% Settled |
| City Police Officers |
2.23% |
2.50% |
2.39% |
2.50% |
66 |
50% |
| County Deputy Sheriffs |
2.37% |
2.12% |
2.36% |
2.12% |
12 |
31% |
| Firefighters |
1.40% |
1.50% |
1.40% |
1.64% |
18 |
30% |
| Corrections Officers (City and County |
1.65% |
2.00% |
1.63% |
1.94% |
18 |
32% |
| Dispatchers (City, County and Regional Centers) |
1.45% |
1.50% |
1.46% |
1.50% |
28 |
44% |
| Records Clerks (City and County) |
1.58% |
1.98% |
1.56% |
1.92% |
50 |
39% |
Both mean and median numbers are reported and each has their own significance. Median settlements may be a better indicator of the overall trend, as the mean number is sometimes distorted by the occasional particularly high settlement.
Later this year, we’ll run another wage settlement update which should provide a more complete assessment of both 2012 and 2013. In the next article in this series, we’ll discuss current economic conditions that may affect your bargaining outlook.
